Lecture 1 “Intelligence Reasoning”
Lecture 2 “Briefing the Commissioner”
Lecture 3 Video “Conducting Analysis of Competing Hypotheses”
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)
Based on the required readings, lecture materials, scenario, and video for Week 6, you will turn in a word processing document with the following elements:
1. A cover sheet
2. No less than four full pages of written text explaining your use of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. This section must include:
a. An introduction (no less than 5 sentences),
b. An explicit thesis statement (“This paper does this, this, and this.”),
c. A text explanation of the results of your ACH, including:
I. A description of ACH as a method (when to use it, how to use it, and what advantages it offers),
ii. No less than 5 hypotheses responding to Chief Heaton’s concerns. (Your interpretation led you to produce a recommendation for Chief Heaton indicating which members of El Movi should be targeted to bring down the organization most efficiently).
iii. An evaluation of each hypothesis based on the evidence,
d. And a conclusion answering the question, “So what?” about the rest of your paper (no less than 5 sentences).
3. A bibliography of ALL sources used for your paper in APA format (use http://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/560/01/ as a guide if necessary).
4. An addendum to the paper showing your ACH matrix.
FOUR PAGES AND REFERENCES NEEDED